truel_simulation

truel_simulation, an Octave code which simulates N instances of a duel between three players.

Player 1 fires at player 2 or 3, and hits with a probability of P(1). Then, if Player 2 is alive, he fires at Player 1 or 3, hitting with a probability of P(2). Then, if Player 3 is alive, he fires at Player 1 or 2, hitting with a probability of P(3). Play continues until only one duellist remains.

The simulation is intended to estimate the probabilities that a player will survive, and the number of turns required.

Usage:

[ s, turn_average ] = truel_simulation ( p, duel_num )

• p is a vector of length 3 containing the probabilities that each player will hit the target they aim at on any given shot.
• duel_num is the number of duels to simulate.
• s is a vector of length 3 containing the probabilities that each player is the survivor.
• turn_average is the average number of turns to complete the duel.

Licensing:

The computer code and data files described and made available on this web page are distributed under the MIT license

Languages:

truel_simulation is available in a MATLAB version and an Octave version and a Python version.

Related Data and codes:

truel_simulation_test

octave_simulation, an Octave code which uses simulation to study card games, contests, and other processes which have a random element. Usually, the purpose is to try to predict the average behavior of the system over many trials.

Reference:

1. Martin Gardner,
   "The Triangular Duel",
   The Second Scientific American Book of Mathematical Puzzles and Diversions,
   Simon and Schuster, 1961.
2. Marc Kilgour, Steven Brams,
   The Truel,
   Mathematics Magazine,
   Volume 70, Number 5, December 1997, pages 315-326.
3. Paul Nahin,
   Duelling Idiots and Other Probability Puzzlers,
   Princeton University Press, 2000,
   ISBN13: 978-0691009797,
   LC: QA273.N29.
4. Martin Shubik,
   "Does the Fittest Necessarily Survive?",
   in Readings in Game Theory and Political Behavior,
   edited by Martin Shubik,
   Doubleday, 1954,
   LC: H61.S53.

Source Code:

• truel_simulation.m, the source code.